Play Houses That ROCK

I saw this article this morning, and all I could think was....

Dear Daddy,

When I asked for a playhouse and you gave me the shed you'd previously kept the mower in (because you bought a newer bigger one of those)... Well, perhaps I should have been more specific.

From,

Your Loving

(And Wishing I Could Keep Up w/the Jones's) Daugther

"LIKE" www.Facebook.com/TheRealEstateWhisperer for 'Real' Real Estate News;

PLUS, fun real estate related thoughts like this one!

Vicky Chrisner

Jealous (Even Now That I am A Grown Up) Daughter

and

Real Estate Sales Consultant

Serving Loudoun County

703.669.3142

VChrisner@KW.com

We Need Sellers!

We need sellers!  It's true.  Inventory levels are very low right now in our area. 

Check out this article in the Washington Examiner talking about what a hot market the DC Metro area is!  It's true that sellers are now seeing multiple offers on competitive priced homes in good condition.  The charts below show the inventory levels (in grey) for Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.  The green line indicates the absorbtion level (note it is higher than the inventory level).  Basically, it means good listings are selling like hot cakes!

If you own property in Fairfax County or Loudoun County, or anywhere in Northern Virginia, this may be the time to try to sell.  The "stars may be aligning".  Call me today for a personal consultation.

If you're looking for a sneak peak showing you what nearby homes are selling for, check out this automated tool: http://www.salesinmyneighborhood.info/.  You do have to enter a good email address - the report takes a few minutes and is emailed to you after your request goes through... that is because it is tailored to the information you submit.  It's a pretty good tool, of course a human produced comparable market analysis is better... but if you're looking for an automated tool this one is pretty good.  (Oh, and no worries - you never get bulk email from submitting your email there. Promise.)

Vicky Chrisner

Selling Homes and Land in Loudoun and Fairfax

703.669.3142

http://www.vickychrisner.com/

www.Facebook.com/TheRealEstateWhisperer

 Other posts that may be of interest to sellers:

1 - Preparing your home for the market
2 - Dear Sellers, I am confused (the importance of property condition)
3 - Showing Feedback

Bye Bye Tax Credit.... Now What?

Well, bye bye tax credit!  That's right, if you're waking up without a ratified contract for your new home this morning, you've missed the opportunity to take advantage of the federal home buyer tax credit.  As it turns out, it seems that buyers in the (local) market have been less focused on this than I'd have expected.  So, if you're a buyer in the market place, perhaps hoping to find less bidding wars in the market place now that it's May, you could be disappointed.  The buyers I have been working with have thought that the tax credit would be "nice" but it was not the underlying reason for their purchase decision.  I've not talked to a single buyer who would choose a home they didn't like or overpay for a home just to ensure that tax credit.  So, how will the market do in May?  Time will tell, but all signs point to a strengthening economy, local job growth, and an improving housing market....in other words, the bidding wars will continue.

Yes, I said improving housing market.  You read that right.  The more reports we see, the better the numbers look:

• 
  
  Washington Examiner: Area Housing Market Shows Signs of Rebound
• 
  
  Loudoun Times: Home Sales, Foreclosures Pick Up
• 
  
  Delta Associates Report/MRIS for the 1st quarter 
• 
  
  Northern Virginia Market Watch

But, better than reading someone else's opinion of the market reports, check them out for yourself.  Aprils reports begin to come out in 1-2 weeks (usually around the 10th of the month) after all the data has been compiled.  You can view the reports at: http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/index.cfm where you can run statistical reports for your zip code and for your county, commentaries begin to be published shortly thereafter.

My Two Cents: As my business has steadily been picking up since the snows melted,  I feel certain that the compiled data will show that my business is not an anomoly and that activity overall is high. 

While foreclosures and short sales continue to dominate some submarkets, I am seeing a dramatically notable return to "traditional" sales due to relocation and personal changes, and more new home sales.  I attribute this to homeowners finally getting "real" about their pricing; and buyers getting sick of the distress home sale market place.

The exception: The high end market.  It continues to be very slow.  We've not seen as many distress sales in this market segment because these homeowners typically have more financial cushion and can withstand financial losses for longer.  However, that won't continue forever, they are not immune.  The industry expects to soon see more distress sales in the high end market place, and with that, price corrections to rebalance activity levels.

My recommendations for the high end market: 

For sellers:  For sellers with a home in that "high end" market, the issue is price. Some homes in that segment are selling and if you want yours to be one of them, take a fresh look at your pricing strategy. Buyers are price, and more importantly value, sensitive. They want to make sure they are buying at a level where they will not lose more value in the next year. Be the first to correct your price~your comps aren't doing it yet, and so there is less competition and it is easier to look like the best value in the market place. Don't wait, you'll end up leaving even more money on the table, especially once you'll be forced to compete with distress sales... and trust me, those banks WILL sell the homes; they are not emotionally tied to the price or the house.  When the home next to yours is a trashed foreclosure, and is the only thing that has sold in your neighborhood in a year, it does not bode well for your home's value... and that is coming.

For buyers:  Look, look, and look again... and maybe even wait to buy.  As those sellers move from "wanting" to sell to "needing" to sell, their prices will come down.  Better values are on the horizon in the high end market place.

* * *

Looking for a home? 

Check out these 17 Open Houses in Loudoun this weekend!

* * *

For updates like this and more, 'like' "The Real Estate Whisperer" on Facebook; or contact me for a personal consultation about how all of this impacts YOU:

Vicky Chrisner

703-669-3142

VChrisner@KW.com

http://www.vickychrisner.com/

To Sell Now or Wait

Like many, you’ve probably been thinking about moving up to a larger home or downsizing, or perhaps even relocating. But, the market has meant declining house values, and you’re concerned that if you don’t get enough for your home, you’ll not be able to afford what you really want in your NEXT home.

Did I hit the nail on the head for you? You’re not alone. It’s always easiest to focus on the scary, negative thoughts – fear is a powerful emotion, in fact, THE most powerful emotion we have as humans. But, as humans, we have the ability to overcome illogical fear if we’re willing to. Let me point out some things you may not know, or may not have put together.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: Because of a decrease in supply for much of this year, home values in some areas have started to rebound slightly, and are making the sales process (when you price “right”) easy for sellers. But, that won’t last forever… banks are holding a plethora of homes in inventory (either they’ve stalled the foreclosure process or they haven’t released foreclosed homes for sale, for a variety of reasons). We expect inventory to pick up after the first of the year – if that happens, it puts downward pressure on prices for YOUR home. And, if you’re trying to wait out the storm, you could be there a long while.

COMPARE THE SUBMARKETS: If your current home's value is less than $500K in Loudoun or $750K in Fairfax County, it's likely that supply is low, and demand for your home is high. 

However, at higher price points in the same area, that's not the case.  So, if you are "trading up" you may benefit from a seller's market when you sell and a buyer's market where you buy. 

If you're relocating, you'll soon realize that our Washington DC submarket is quite different from other areas of the country.  Many areas have massively depressed home prices allowing you to scoop up amazing deals.  While buyers markets are found in many areas, some of the best opportunities include Detroit, Michigan, most of Florida, the Las Vegas area and far more.

So, whether you're moving up or relocating, you have a very good chance of benefitting from seller market conditions when you sell, and buyer market conditions when you buy.  Can it really get better than that?

INTEREST RATES: Let’s face it, Americans buy with loans… therefore, the interest rate for loans impacts you as both a seller and a buyer. Right now, the fed’s rate is 0% and it can not go any lower. To artificially DEFLATE interest rates and spur more home buying activity, the fed has been buying mortgage backed securities. This has resulted in a “typical” 6% interest rate being reduced to an average hovering around 5%.

What does this mean in dollars? Well, for every 1% increase in interest rate, if you want to keep your payment identically the same, the price of the home must be 10% less. So, buyers that can pay $500K for your home today with a 5% interest rate, will only be able to pay $450K for it at a 6% interest rate. I bet you’d like to keep that $50K in your pocket, wouldn’t you?

And, this won’t last forever either. In fact, the fed has announced it will be phasing these purchases out and no longer plans to buy these mortgage backed securities after the first quarter of next year. That means if you are thinking of putting your house on the market in the spring, that could be a very poor decision.

EXPANDED TAX CREDIT: You’ve heard of the “First time home buyer tax credit” of up to $8,000? Well, that is coming to an end November 30th. BUT, it's being extended!  And, it gets better… the new version of this program is not just for first time home buyers any more! If you are a first time home buyer you can still get up to $8000.  Or, if you’ve owned a home for 5 of the last 8 years, this NEW credit’s for you, too! Plus, the income limits are being increased…. Allowing people with higher incomes ($125K for one person, $225K for a married couple) to take advantage of the maximum credit. If this passes, it will expire APRIL 30th.

This affects you as a buyer and as a seller. You may be eligible as a buyer; but even if not, your buyer may be eligible, and certainly many buyers in the market will be eligible, spurring activity and urgency to buy before April 30th of next year.

Check out the highlights of this bill: http://www.realtor.org/fedistrk.nsf/files/government_affairs_tax_credit_ext_chart_110409.pdf/$FILE/government_affairs_tax_credit_ext_chart_110409.pdf

** As an aside, please know that the National REALTOR Association worked hard to make this happen.  Your national, state and local REALTOR associations are always looking out for you, property owner rights, and small business owners, as well as for our economy overall.  This bill is only one example of the fruits of our labor.

***

Still not convinced? Call me for a personal consultation. I will be glad to help you sort through this, and other economic news, as well as to discuss your family’s specific situation and help you strategize to make the most of what’s available to you.

www.VickyChrisner.com

Ofc: 703-669-3142

VChrisner@KW.com

Who Can You Trust?

In economies like ours, it's hard to know - which economists and government leaders should you trust? Which ones really know what's going on? How can you decide when it is time to save or spend? Where to invest? If it's time to buy or sell a house? If you should buy at a higher price, because prices will continue to go up; or if it's time to wait for prices to drop further? Watch this video (courtesy of The Daily Show), and then YOU DECIDE:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Home Crisis Investigation
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Healthcare Protests

As for me, I always check out how they decorate their bathrooms before I decide if I trust them or not. What about you?

August Stats Show Stabilizing Market in Northern Virginia

In reviewing the latest statistics published by the local MLS system, I continue to feel cautiously optimistic about the stabilization in our market place. Northern Virginia includes Fairfax & Arlington Counties and all of the cities within those areas. Highlights of the report include: - Inventory this month is down from 11956 active listings to 9191 active listings as of the end of August. - With 1887 newly recorded contracts last month, that indicates an inventory of approximately 4.87 months supply (NAR considers 6 months inventory a balanced market). - We continue to see confidence in the market place by investors and first time home buyers, indicated by the number of cash transactions (about 8% of purchases) and those financed with FHA and VA loans (about 27% of purchases). - Perhaps the best statistic in all of this is that the number of units sold was up about 6% compared to the same time last year. Northern Virginia is a large area.

Arlington has not followed the trends of the other sub-markets. Arlington has remained relatively stable, with prices and activity level being extremely similar when compared year to year; and inventory levels hovering around the 4 month level.

Conversely, Fairfax has seen dips, and seems to be showing signs of recovery. The prices in Fairfax are down about 20% compared to last year, with the number of solds up more than 10% from August 2007. The inventory level in Fairfax County is now at about 5 months.

Personally, I am concerned about Arlington. When everything around the area is adjusting, it seems odd that one area would be able to weather the storm without showing wear. I believe that gas prices have kept that area stronger, as people wanted to live close to the city to save on gas. In addition, Arlington has been "built out" for much longer with no significant new development to increase inventory. However, as the suburbs seem to have adjusted to the new market, Arlington will not appear a value compared to things just a few miles away. In order to keep demand high, I expect to see price drops in Arlington in the coming months. Only when the entire area has "rebalanced" will be able to move to the next level, "recovery".

================================================================= MRIS publishes new statistics monthly, around the second week of the month. The public can access these reports from MRIS.com. They are published by region, county, city, and even zip code. A qualified agent can help you understand the information contained in these reports. For an even closer look at market conditions, order a personalized Market Snapshot by clicking HERE. Type in the information about your home, and your email address... a personalized report will be sent to you in a few minutes, detailing information about the geographically closest homes which are for sale and have recently sold.

Thinking of Selling? Some Facts about Northern Virginia

So, you're thinking of selling... wondering what the market's like? Here are some interesting statistics, published through the end of last quarter (June 2008)... and a bit of information about how to interpret it: In Northern Virginia (No. Virginia is defined by MRIS as Fairfax Co. & City, Alexandria, Falls Church and Arlington) * Prices of SOLD home are down about 15% from last year. * The number of homes sold are down about 5% from last year. * The average number of days a home stays on the market is 83. * The SOLD prices of homes is, on average, 93% of asking price. Who the buyers are: Looking at how people are financing homes gives us some clue about who the buyers are: * 65% finance with conventional loans. This requires a 20% down payment, which usually signifies someone OTHER than a first time home buyer. * 23% finance with FHA or VA loans - these are typically first time home buyers. * 10% pay cash, assume a loan or use seller financing - these are typically investors. Compared to last year, there is a huge difference. Last year more than 90% of the purchases were paid for with conventional loans, only about 1% were FHA or VA loans, and less than 5% were paid for with cash, loan assumptions or seller financing. What does this mean? Well, it says that the No. Va. region is showing some signs of stabilization. When you see an increase in first time home buyers and investors entering the market, that is a good sign. Further supporting this, is the supply ratio - last year this time, we had a 5.7 month supply of available homes; this year, it's down to 4.96 months. That might not sound like a big adjustment, but it is measurable. There are signs of stabilization in the market place. Having said all of this, what's going on in Northern Virginia does not tell you what your area is like. Some areas are showing even stronger levels of stabilization, where other neighborhoods have indicators that seem to suggest further price decline in the coming months. If you're trying to decide what your next step should be, call me. I will be happy to run reports and help you analyze the data that is most critical to you. But, for you "do-it-yourself-ers" out there, feel free to use these resources to help you learn more: * If you follow this link, you are welcome to run the same reports for anywhere that MRIS services. You can run them by area or by zip code. There are a lot of numbers on these reports, but I have shared with you some of the greatest industry markers available to us. New statistics are published around the 10th of each month for the preceding calendar month: http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/monthly_reti.cfm * On the home page of my web site is a Market Snapshot tool, it links to the MLS with live data and will tell you the prices and other information of homes that have sold or that are on the market that are closest to your home. Please note, the report will be automatically generated and emailed to you - so you must include a REAL email, or you will not receive the report. You must also include the specific address of the property so that tool can function - since it is looking for the closest addresses to yours, if it does not know where you live, it will not be able to determine who is closest to you. Once you've entered the information, you'll get monthly updates automatically. You can also choose to get information more often. If you have any difficulties or would like assistance obtaining or analyzing this information, my team and I are here to serve you. Don't hesitate to ask!