Distress Sales Plummet in MRIS Territory

This post just in from the Virginia Association of REALTORS, Submitted by Andrew Kantor on May 11, 2012 – 8:32am

We’ve now got MRIS’s April numbers for foreclosures and short sales. Short sales are slightly up, but foreclosures are waaaay down.

Short sales: 12.2% of the market, up about 3% from last April
Foreclosure sales: 11.0% of the market, down 47% from last April
Total distressed sales: 23.2% of the market, down 29% from last April

Granted, having a market where almost a quarter of the sales are distressed isn’t a Good Thing, but there’s a sense to it. People bought near the top of the bubble and have to sell (for whatever reason — job, life change, etc.). So they either take the hit or work out a short sale with their lenders.

That means that short sales are going to continue to be a noticeable part of the market for as long as lots of folks own homes bought between, say, 2004 and 2007. If they have to sell, they’ll have to sell at a lower price, ’cause it’s gonna be a while before prices are back up to those unnatural highs.

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Comments from Vicky Chrisner:  This is great news and evidence of the continuing market recovery.  From a personal standpoint, within my service areas I am seeing 20% or less of the market is distress sales (foreclosures+short sales).  In 2008, I mostly worked REOs (foreclosures); in 2009 it was a mix of REOs and short sales; in 2011 my business was about 1/3 traditional resales, 1/3 distress sales and 1/3 new construction.  So far, in 2012, I have worked mostly with traditional resales and new construction and am pleased to report that I am even doing a lot of land sales again…. I estimate the percentage of distress sales is about 15-20% of my business so far; which seems very much in line with the submarkets where I work.

-Footnote:  MRIS is the Metropolitan Regional Information System~ It is the multiple listing service for the Washington DC Metro area which includes Northern Virginia, Washington DC and most of Maryland.

This post is courtesy Vicky Chrisner, "The Real Estate Whisperer" 

Interested in learning more about local market statistics?  Check out this page which gives you some great charts and graphs about stats in the Northern Virginia Market.

To Sell Now or Wait

Like many, you’ve probably been thinking about moving up to a larger home or downsizing, or perhaps even relocating. But, the market has meant declining house values, and you’re concerned that if you don’t get enough for your home, you’ll not be able to afford what you really want in your NEXT home.

Did I hit the nail on the head for you? You’re not alone. It’s always easiest to focus on the scary, negative thoughts – fear is a powerful emotion, in fact, THE most powerful emotion we have as humans. But, as humans, we have the ability to overcome illogical fear if we’re willing to. Let me point out some things you may not know, or may not have put together.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: Because of a decrease in supply for much of this year, home values in some areas have started to rebound slightly, and are making the sales process (when you price “right”) easy for sellers. But, that won’t last forever… banks are holding a plethora of homes in inventory (either they’ve stalled the foreclosure process or they haven’t released foreclosed homes for sale, for a variety of reasons). We expect inventory to pick up after the first of the year – if that happens, it puts downward pressure on prices for YOUR home. And, if you’re trying to wait out the storm, you could be there a long while.

COMPARE THE SUBMARKETS: If your current home's value is less than $500K in Loudoun or $750K in Fairfax County, it's likely that supply is low, and demand for your home is high. 

However, at higher price points in the same area, that's not the case.  So, if you are "trading up" you may benefit from a seller's market when you sell and a buyer's market where you buy. 

If you're relocating, you'll soon realize that our Washington DC submarket is quite different from other areas of the country.  Many areas have massively depressed home prices allowing you to scoop up amazing deals.  While buyers markets are found in many areas, some of the best opportunities include Detroit, Michigan, most of Florida, the Las Vegas area and far more.

So, whether you're moving up or relocating, you have a very good chance of benefitting from seller market conditions when you sell, and buyer market conditions when you buy.  Can it really get better than that?

INTEREST RATES: Let’s face it, Americans buy with loans… therefore, the interest rate for loans impacts you as both a seller and a buyer. Right now, the fed’s rate is 0% and it can not go any lower. To artificially DEFLATE interest rates and spur more home buying activity, the fed has been buying mortgage backed securities. This has resulted in a “typical” 6% interest rate being reduced to an average hovering around 5%.

What does this mean in dollars? Well, for every 1% increase in interest rate, if you want to keep your payment identically the same, the price of the home must be 10% less. So, buyers that can pay $500K for your home today with a 5% interest rate, will only be able to pay $450K for it at a 6% interest rate. I bet you’d like to keep that $50K in your pocket, wouldn’t you?

And, this won’t last forever either. In fact, the fed has announced it will be phasing these purchases out and no longer plans to buy these mortgage backed securities after the first quarter of next year. That means if you are thinking of putting your house on the market in the spring, that could be a very poor decision.

EXPANDED TAX CREDIT: You’ve heard of the “First time home buyer tax credit” of up to $8,000? Well, that is coming to an end November 30th. BUT, it's being extended!  And, it gets better… the new version of this program is not just for first time home buyers any more! If you are a first time home buyer you can still get up to $8000.  Or, if you’ve owned a home for 5 of the last 8 years, this NEW credit’s for you, too! Plus, the income limits are being increased…. Allowing people with higher incomes ($125K for one person, $225K for a married couple) to take advantage of the maximum credit. If this passes, it will expire APRIL 30th.

This affects you as a buyer and as a seller. You may be eligible as a buyer; but even if not, your buyer may be eligible, and certainly many buyers in the market will be eligible, spurring activity and urgency to buy before April 30th of next year.

Check out the highlights of this bill: http://www.realtor.org/fedistrk.nsf/files/government_affairs_tax_credit_ext_chart_110409.pdf/$FILE/government_affairs_tax_credit_ext_chart_110409.pdf

** As an aside, please know that the National REALTOR Association worked hard to make this happen.  Your national, state and local REALTOR associations are always looking out for you, property owner rights, and small business owners, as well as for our economy overall.  This bill is only one example of the fruits of our labor.

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Still not convinced? Call me for a personal consultation. I will be glad to help you sort through this, and other economic news, as well as to discuss your family’s specific situation and help you strategize to make the most of what’s available to you.

www.VickyChrisner.com

Ofc: 703-669-3142

VChrisner@KW.com

Types of Sales Seen in Today's Market

This post is intended to help you understand the types of sales in today's marketplace. Whether you are a first time home buyer, or it is just one of many times you've purchased real estate, today's market is simply not the same as yesterday's. Read on to understand what you might find once you start your great house hunt.....

Traditional Sales If the prices are right, these are the best transactions! This is when "Joe the Plummer" is selling his home, and there is no third party involved on the seller side of the transaction. The contract is more “normal” in nature, allowing reasonable negotiations between the parties. Each party genuinely hopes for the sale to be completed and therefore works together to meet deadlines and ensure everything is resolved to the mutual satisfaction of all parties. Each party is likely only conducting one or two real estate transactions at a time, which are usually the largest financial considerations in that particular moment in time ~ therefore, each party gives this transaction his priority attention, and the process goes more smoothly as a result.

Considerations

• Generally, private homeowners can not compete with the aggressive pricing strategies of a bank/seller.
• Properties are often in better condition, requiring less fix up. Owners may also complete some repairs.
• Private owners generally do not consider a cash offer more valuable than common financing terms.

Short Sales In these sales, the Seller must negotiate with their lender(s) for approval before selling. They may be asking for full or partial debt forgiveness or a note payable for any deficit. Banks agreement to these sales are dependent on the ability of the family to repay the debt, and the circumstances that have changed since the loan was originally approved. This process can take several months, and sometimes does not result in a closing. Considerations:

• How many lenders are involved?
• What is the hardship/ability of the owners to repay?
• Will they be asking for debt forgiveness or a note payable?
• Who is negotiating with the bank and what is their experience level?
• Which bank is it; what is their process and has it been started?

Contract considerations:

• Longer contract periods with floating deadlines, all based on the approval timeline of the bank.
• Banks generally will not agree to a below market sale – this is determined based on an independent appraisal they conduct.
• While owners may consider doing some repairs, generally contracts are “AS IS”.
• Inspections are usually OK, but buyer can not ask for any repairs; their only choice is to terminate the contract.
• Cash offers are considered favorably, but not to the extent they are with bank owned properties.

Bank Owned (Post Foreclosure) Properties: These tend to be some of the best deals available in today’s market. Contract considerations:

• Banks are pricing aggressively, and when they do, often there are multiple competing offers for properties. You may consider submitting an escalation addendum in these cases, although some banks will not consider escalation addendums during negotiations and simply come back and ask for “best and final”, or accept an alternative offer.
• Cash is king! Banks realize the struggles and risks involved in some buyers obtaining financing. In addition, they are aware of property condition guidelines from FHA or other types of loans, which might REQUIRE repairs prior to closing… and they want to avoid this.
• By targeting homes which might not qualify for government financing, and making cash offers, you may be able to buy at a more reduced rate.
• If you are using a government loan to purchase, be prepared to have offers on REOs rejected.
• Often properties are in “fixer upper” condition, and properties are sold strictly AS IS.
• Inspections are usually OK, but buyer’s only recourse is contract termination.
• Banks require that you agree to the terms in their addenda, with NO CHANGES.
• Some banks require certified funds as deposit and/or specify who will hold the deposit.

Banks are like the military – it’s “hurry up and wait”. The timeline looks something like this:

Offer Submission

• 3-10 days later, Offer “Acceptance” (verbal or email)
• 1-2 days later, Counter Offer sent w/bank addendum
• Within 1 day – resubmit offer w/ acceptance of bank terms
• 3-10 days later, Ratified Contract.

Closing is as specified in the counter offer, which is generally a fixed date. Challenges here become getting utilities turned on to complete the home inspection; completing title searches; & obtaining HOA docs within the time frame permitted by the contract.

Banks will close AFTER you, and you will not get possession until they’ve signed off on everything. This can cause delays, I have seen more than 1 take over 2 weeks. I suggest attempting to negotiate a penalty to the banks should this occur.

Read more about Buying Post Foreclosures/REOs HERE.

Auctions: Public Auctions/Courthouse Steps: These are the foreclosure auctions. The vast majority of these are purchased by the bank who owns the mortgage/lien, which is generally more than the current market value. There are some opportunities here, but they are more limited than many expect. There are also more challenges in these transactions. Generally, no contingencies are allowed. Should your financing fall apart, you will be considered in default and not able to recover your deposit. Private Auctions/Ballrooms or at property: These are often done by banks (or other parties) and most commonly are done with a RESERVE. Again, there are sporadic opportunities here. Terms are very similar to those by any Bank Owned Homes. Be sure to understand the purchase agreement, as there may or may not be allowances for contingencies.

Read more about Real Estate Auctions HERE.

These are the primary types of sales we are seeing today... depending on your specific circumstances, you can decide which of these types of sales are ones that you would like to consider for purchase; and now you have at least some idea what you might encounter.

REOs - Everything you need to know

UPDATE:  Thanks for coming to my blog.  Regardless of how you got here, this series was written in 2008.  The market is ever evolving and hopefully you will find this information outdated.  A better source of CURRENT information about buying an REO can be found by clicking HERE:  REOs in 2010. 

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Buying "foreclosures" remains a major consumer focus; so I wanted to outline the series I finished up last month on the process. I broke it into several parts, all of which you'll want to read if you're thinking about jumping into the game! 

As all of these posts are very serious, informative and specific... first, I want to give you a humorous look at what you might encounter.

Yes, when you are planning to buy, it CAN feel like this.  The good news is you are taking good steps which will enable you to get through this: (1) Educate yourself  (2) Get (and keep) a sense of humor (3) Hire an agent that knows what they are doing!

The TRUTH about REOs

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/06/whats-reo.html 

Ready to Buy

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/ready-to-buy.html 

The Great House Hunt

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/great-house-hunt.html 

Making an Offer - PRICE

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/making-offer-on-reo-part-1-price.html 

Making an Offer - FINANCING 

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/making-offer-on-reo-part-2-financing.html 

Making an Offer - DEADLINES 

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/making-offer-on-reo-part-3-deadlines.html 

Contract to Close - TITLE COMPANY

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/contract-to-close-process-for-reo-part.html 

Contract to Close - Everything "else"  

http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/reos-contract-to-close-pt-2.html 

I am successfully helping investors, first time home buyers, and those "moving up" find great deals in the market every day. So many of the homes are post foreclosure REOs, and they can be great deals - after all, they SHOULD be if you have to know all of this, AND MORE to buy one! I can help you navigate the murky waters of today's market - please give me a call!  

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Update note 5/29/09: Thank you to all that continue to contact me expressing appreciation for this blog. For those of you that would like a copy of the addendum I reference in these posts; please see http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2009/05/reos-addendum.html. 

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Vicky Chrisner Keller Williams Realty 

703-669-3142 vchrisner@kw.com 

Start your home search today at: http://www.vickychrisner.com/

Making an Offer on an REO - Part 1: Price

UPDATE: Thanks for coming to my blog. Regardless of how you got here, this series was written in 2008. The market is ever evolving and hopefully you will find this information outdated. A better source of CURRENT information about buying an REO can be found by clicking HERE: REOs in 2010.
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It's halfway through 2008, and it seems that almost the only thing I do these days is work with buyers purchasing REOs. Here, I will attempt to share with you what I've learned. For Part I, we'll start with the big one: PRICE. "What should I offer?" is a question I hear time and time again. Will the bank accept a low ball offer? The answer: Maybe. Here's what I know from experience. If the house is priced agressively (meaning low), it will generate fast offers. If you like it, so will someone else. Likely, it will have multiple offers and sell for at or above list price, quickly. This is the goal of most banks. If the home does not qualify for certain financing due to it's condition, it may not generate the same interest level, and may not receive multiple offers. For a buyer, less competition is good. If the listing has been on the market for 3+ weeks with no offer, banks will usually negotiate 3-5% of the listing price without too much fuss. If the listing has been on the market for 30-45 days with no offers, banks are about to adjust their price. They will adjust it based on the recommendations of their agents, but it is not uncommon to see a 10% price adjustment. So, somewhere about the 45 day mark, it starts to become reasonable to make an offer that is 10% below the listing price. After each price adjustment, the bank goes through this process again and again. For example, let's say that a property is priced at $300,000. After 45 days with no offers, the bank lowers the price to $275,000, which is enough to generate quick offers. At this point, an offer that is 10% below the asking price is not likely to get much attention. It is very rare that you will see an offer accepted that is more than 10% below the asking price. That goes back to the explanation I provided you in the beginning, banks need to show they got "fair market value". It is a requirement. In the next post, we'll tackle financing, and how the banks are evaluating your financing plans. Sign up to be alerted when this next post is published!

The Great House Hunt

UPDATE: Thanks for coming to my blog. Regardless of how you got here, this series was written in 2008. The market is ever evolving and hopefully you will find this information outdated. A better source of CURRENT information about buying an REO can be found by clicking HERE: REOs in 2010.


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So, you’re ready to go see some properties. With the REOs flooding the market, the term House Hunt is starting to have a new meaning. Looking at some REOs can be an adventure – think “Wild African Safari”. Here are a few tips on what to expect when you get out there… none of this is fiction, it is based on actual experiences; and it includes mundane information that will bore you, but make you more prepared for the day of "the HUNT".  (Watch this video - it will give you a clue! This was prepared by a colleague at another brokerage, but is similar to stories heard around the country!)

Short Sales – In our area, you’ll find that these are often occupied homes, so you must call ahead before going to see the homes. Many times, they're in good shape and very presentable. Sometimes, however, the "depression" of the owners will be obvious.

REOs – Let’s call these what they are – abandoned properties. You never know what you will find.

- There may or may not be a sign out front. You'll likely be greeted by signs that say "WARNING" and then have a bunch of smaller writing...but they will not be warning you of the stuff that they SHOULD be warning you of! - These homes are generally (but not always) “trashed out” – meaning the owner’s stuff that was left behind has been removed. There MAY have been a surface cleaning done. (Tip - DO NOT OPEN THE REFRIGERATOR, even if the house looks clean.) - Previous owners, depressed and angry about their situation, may have deliberately vandalized the home – and sometimes you find some really gross stuff in there. - Locks have likely been changed and the property may be winterized and/or have no utilities in service. Try to plan your trip when there’s plenty of daylight. Sometimes the locks are broken. I had a door knob fall off in my hand once. Bring a screwdriver with you. And, while you’re at it, you might want to bring a flash light, too, and, oh, a pair of rubber gloves never hurt anyone. - Who knows the last time someone checked this property? Check the perimeter of the property, and enter carefully, some of these vacant homes are being occupied by the homeless, or prostitutes. And wild animals, or dead animals (or dead wild animals) are being found inside. - Consider your dress. You could have to walk through the yard to get to the home. The grass could be overgrown (think trash, pet waste, snakes or ticks) or you could enter a home that has a pest infestation. Wearing sandals or heels and a nice suit may not be a good choice.

I do not say any of this to scare you. Banks are taking more pride and doing more to ensure that the properties are presentable. However, I know I wish someone had warned me before I showed a few of these properties!

Traditional Sales – These may be vacant or occupied, so read the showing instructions carefully. They will generally be in presentable shape, they may even be professionally staged. Utilities are usually on, the home is comfortable, and visiting these homes can be pleasurable. Sometimes, they’ll even have nice brochures, smooth jazz playing in the background; there could be take away promo items or even refreshments! Gosh, you’d think these people want to sell! After your first trip out, you’ll be more educated. Look at the prices, consider what cleaning and maintenance costs might be involved. (I had one home inspector make a written recommendation to a buyer client of mine to have the toilet cleaned by a licensed professional.) Talk to your agent about the timelines and potential negotiation and transactional pitfalls to expect from the various types of sellers. Still thinking of focusing on REOs? It’s something to consider. But, make sure you get a good deal.

Now that you have a clue about the market, are you ready?  Well... come on!  Hop in and let's start looking!

My next post will be on preparing the offer for an REO. So, you can stay up and keep reading... or jump in the car with me, and we'll talk on the way to look at houses!

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Ready to Buy?

UPDATE: Thanks for coming to my blog. Regardless of how you got here, this series was written in 2008. The market is ever evolving and hopefully you will find this information outdated. A better source of CURRENT information about buying an REO can be found by clicking HERE: REOs in 2010. FINANCES How much cash do you have to purchase this property? Will you need financing? What will that financing look like? Interview a few lenders. Find someone that has competitive rates and a wide range of products, and find someone that explains things to you well, and most importantly WHO YOU TRUST. Then, examine your options. Consider both the cash for closing and the monthly payments. Don’t forget about taxes and insurance, and HOA fees. (Tips: If you already have a buyer's agent, ask for a referral to a couple of lenders. Other good sources include a bank or lender you already have an established relationship with; and/or a referral from someone you know.) FIND AN AGENT Now, interview a few buyers agents. Most buyers NEED one, but even those that don’t NEED one, will find a great amount of convenience and pleasure in having someone coordinate this process for you and advise you at every turn. Working with a true professional will bring you great value. Plus, if you make a bad decision, and you don’t have a buyer’s agent, who will you blame? (Tips - find good agents through referrals of friends and relatives; but then interview them. All agents are not alike.) LEARN ABOUT THE MARKET An agent can tell you what’s available that meets your criteria based on an automated search. From there, drive the neighborhoods, get a feel for the areas you like best. Have your agent set you up with an automated search so you’ll be notified of homes coming on the market that might fit your criteria. This online studying will be the start of your education about price fluxuations, neighborhoods, available inventory and the activity level in the areas you're considering. If you are an investor, consider the strength of the rental markets, too, and the property price vs. the rental rates. Your agent should be able to help with this. After you’ve selected a few potential neighborhoods, consider looking at a homes. Here, there may be some minor differences between looking at “short sales”, REOs, or traditional sellers. Choose what homes you’ll see based on your criteria and the price. Don’t specifically target REOs, Short Sales or Traditional sales just yet. I learned along time ago to consider what I hear but to make my decisions on my first hand knowledge. Your agent should share their experiences with you, and be able to prep you on what to expect - like the things I will tell you in my next post… So, before you run out to get that first hand knowledge, wait for tomorrow's post. You'll be glad you did.

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You’re an investor or a personal home buyer, and you are looking for a great deal. You’ve heard that “foreclosures” are the way to go, but after reading my last post, you now know that those “layman” are mostly talking about REOs. Anyway, where to start? Start where all buyers should start – outline your goals and get a plan together. Consider: WHAT DO YOU LIKE For a personal purchase, this is about where you'll live and the quality of your life. Consider what your household needs to be comfortable and happy. How much space, what kind of neighborhood, schools, communities amenities. How many bedrooms, bathrooms? What kind of finishes? How big of a yard? How will you get to and from work? For an investment property, who will be your renter? What will they like and need? How will the property be managed? Can you do it or will it be too far from your home? Are you OK with handling maintenance issues? HOW LONG YOU WILL OWN For a personal property, think about how you believe your family will evolve over the next several years. How’s your health? What about your parents – will they be moving in? Do you plan to have kids or do you have kids going off to college? Will you be getting married, divorced, or getting a dog? How’s your job stability? Are you likely to be transferred? If you lost your job could you find another close by? Really think about this. Based on the answers to these questions, how long do you think you’ll own the property? The average is 7 years, by the way. Some people move more often, some people only move once in their adult lives. What kind are you? Here’s a tip – if you won’t live there (or don’t want to own the property) for a MINIMUM of five years, then consider renting. For an investment property, it's part of the basics. Real estate is a solid investment as a long term hold. This not the market for a fix and flip or pure short term speculation – it’s entirely too risky, so skip it. Put your money somewhere safer. If you’re planning a long term hold, more power to you – this is a great time to buy.