Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Statistics

This information, and much more, is available on my web site at www.VickyChrisner.com and is updated regularly, so for the latest and greatest info, be sure and check out my site.

HOW MUCH INVENTORY IS THERE?

The real estate market is really all about "Supply and Demand", so to understand the market the first question is: How much inventory is there? In other words, how many homes are currently being marketed for sale in our area?

This chart gives you the 5 year historical data on inventory levels in our Northern Virginia area:

PRICING TRENDS & FACTORS:

When inventory is high, prices will inevitably have to fall so that inventory can be re-balanced. This is what you see in 2007-2009. Remember, too, when looking at that data, that the "First Time Home Buyer" tax credit programs were in place for parts of 2008-2010 offering financial tax incentives for those purchasing their first homes. These programs did stimulate the "starter home" market substantially. This meant that the lower priced homes were selling more rapidly and those were a significant portion of the sales during that time, pulling down the "median" sales price statistics. That program helped to re-balance our inventory levels, and made way for sellers to become "move up" buyers. This program continued to have an impact on the market statistics through 2010. In 2011, we saw more normal trends in pricing, with moderate price growth; and 2012 seems to be reflecting a similar, although even more optimistic, trend.

This chart shows you the 5 year historical data on median sales prices within our Northern Virginia area:

ARE SELLERS GETTING THEIR PRICE?

Sellers need to know how much negotiation buyers are generally expecting in the market.... and Buyers need to know if low ball offers are getting accepted. While every transaction is individual, this chart gives us a big picture answer to that question. In the chart below, you can see the 5 year historical averages in our region for the percentage of selling price to original list price.

WHAT ELSE?

If you're interested in hearing the latest available statistics, and market indicators in our region, you won't want to miss this video, and be sure to check back after the 20th of the month to get the next update.

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When you're looking for a REALTOR that knows the market, you can trust Vicky Chrisner. Vicky Chrisner, Northern Virginia REALTOROffice: 703.669.3142

Email: MyAgentVicky@Gmail.com  

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Distress Sales Plummet in MRIS Territory

This post just in from the Virginia Association of REALTORS, Submitted by Andrew Kantor on May 11, 2012 – 8:32am

We’ve now got MRIS’s April numbers for foreclosures and short sales. Short sales are slightly up, but foreclosures are waaaay down.

Short sales: 12.2% of the market, up about 3% from last April
Foreclosure sales: 11.0% of the market, down 47% from last April
Total distressed sales: 23.2% of the market, down 29% from last April

Granted, having a market where almost a quarter of the sales are distressed isn’t a Good Thing, but there’s a sense to it. People bought near the top of the bubble and have to sell (for whatever reason — job, life change, etc.). So they either take the hit or work out a short sale with their lenders.

That means that short sales are going to continue to be a noticeable part of the market for as long as lots of folks own homes bought between, say, 2004 and 2007. If they have to sell, they’ll have to sell at a lower price, ’cause it’s gonna be a while before prices are back up to those unnatural highs.

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Comments from Vicky Chrisner:  This is great news and evidence of the continuing market recovery.  From a personal standpoint, within my service areas I am seeing 20% or less of the market is distress sales (foreclosures+short sales).  In 2008, I mostly worked REOs (foreclosures); in 2009 it was a mix of REOs and short sales; in 2011 my business was about 1/3 traditional resales, 1/3 distress sales and 1/3 new construction.  So far, in 2012, I have worked mostly with traditional resales and new construction and am pleased to report that I am even doing a lot of land sales again…. I estimate the percentage of distress sales is about 15-20% of my business so far; which seems very much in line with the submarkets where I work.

-Footnote:  MRIS is the Metropolitan Regional Information System~ It is the multiple listing service for the Washington DC Metro area which includes Northern Virginia, Washington DC and most of Maryland.

This post is courtesy Vicky Chrisner, "The Real Estate Whisperer" 

Interested in learning more about local market statistics?  Check out this page which gives you some great charts and graphs about stats in the Northern Virginia Market.

August Market Update for Loudoun

Reports continue to show stabilization within Loudoun County. Since prices adjusted (down about 25% from last year as of the end of August), activity levels continue to be on the rise.

MRIS reports a 28.47% increase in the number of closed sales in August 2008 compared to August 2007. This has been a trend for several months (up 8% in July, 19% in June, 12% in May, when compared to the same months in 2007), and is a very positive indicator that Loudoun, at least for now, seems to have reached the "bottom" of the market and is improving. I have even seen recent transactions where an investor purchased a home from a bank a few months ago, and has flipped the property, quickly, making no improvements and raking in a handsome profit. Although I do NOT recommend this investment strategy in a volital market, it is very nice to see that we may be experiencing not just stabilization, but perhaps some recovery in limited areas.

The 37 cash purchases in August (about 7% of the closed transactions) indicate investors support the theory that Loudoun's market in strengthening.

And, with 37% of the transactions being financed with FHA and VA loans, we know that first time home buyers are seeing opportunities in the market of newly affordable homes available, coupled with historically low interest rates. I anticipate September will show further increase in FHA loans as those using the seller funded down payment assistance programs will rush to complete their transactions before the program disappears (CLICK HERE TO LEARN ABOUT THIS CHANGE). We may see a "lull" in October as first time home buyers, real estate agents and loan officers scramble to learn about other low/no money down options to keep a steady flow of these buyers entering our market.

Currently, Loudoun has a little less than a 5 month inventory of homes on the market. The National Association of REALTORS suggests that a 6 month inventory is indicative of a "balanced" market, with higher inventory levels being a "buyers market" and lower inventory levels indicating a "sellers market". I am not certain I would call this a "seller's market" considering how far prices have dropped compared to previous years. However, sellers who are pricing RIGHT when their listings enter the market place ARE seeing multiple offers and quick sales. The MRIS report shows that 30% of the homes that went under contract did so in the first 30 days on the market, and another 18% got a contract within the first 60 days. What happens to sellers "testing" the market with unrealistic pricing expectations? Those would be the listings that remain on the market well beyond the "average" of 103 days of marketing time.

So, what's next? With the Fed taking control of Freddie and Fannie, Lehman Bros filing for bankrupsty, Merill Lynch being purchased by Bank of America, and the seller funded DPA's disappearing, what's to come over the next few months? Stay tuned as I work to provide you with insights on this ever changing market.

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MRIS publishes new statistics monthly, around the second week of the month. The public can access these reports from MRIS.com. They are published by region, county, city, and even zip code. A qualified agent can help you understand the information contained in these reports.For an even closer look at market conditions, order a personalized Market Snapshot by clicking HERE. Type in the information about your home, and your email address... a personalized report will be sent to you in a few minutes, detailing information about the geographically closest homes which are for sale and have recently sold.