Loudoun's Sales Volume Remain Strong!

Since May, the number of home sales in Loudoun have been up considerably when compared to the same month in the prior year. Check out this chart, showing the number of sales (month by month) for 2007 compared to 2008 (courtesy of the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS):

As of October 31st, for homes priced under $500,000; the inventory level rose to a 5.5 month supply. For homes priced between $500,000 and $700,000, the supply level is holding steady at approximately 9 months. For homes priced above $700,000; the market continues to remain stagnant; rising to an 18 month supply. And for homes with prices of seven digits or more, there is an overwhelming 36 month supply of homes. Post Election Comments....

The last couple of weeks of October, it certainly felt to me like our local activity level slowed a bit as neighbors were drawn to the television wondering what bank would fail next, what the stock market would do and which Presidential Candidate would solve the economic problems of the world.

Now that the election is over, I heard agents across the country breathing a sigh of relief, almost immediately, as they reported an increase in buyer traffic to their listings. I am getting more calls from buyers, and suspect that the year will finish strong, although I still feel hesitancy in many sectors of the market.

Here in Loudoun and neighboring areas, we expect to be hit with a large activity level as the "changing of the guards" takes place over the next few months. Northern Virginia always has high activity levels following elections, especially when there is a change in party. At the same time, I expect buyers to focus on buying homes that suit their needs, foregoing unnecessary luxuries. Families making over $250,000 have seen much of their perceived wealth disappear with the changes in the economy, and many fear coming tax changes promised by President Elect Obama. This will keep them from spending more than necessary on homes; and further delay recovery in the top sector of the market.

MORE RESOURCES...........

See comments on previous months' stats in Loudoun County:

• September 2008 Market Statistics for Loudoun
• August 2008 Market Statistics for Loudoun
• July 2008 Market Statistics for Loudoun
• June 2008 Market Statistics for Loudoun
• May 2008 Market Statistics for Loudoun

Click HERE to view the reports as published by MRIS. Click on News and then on Market Statistics.

To see the graph and other historical reports as published by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors, simply click HERE. Reports are available starting from 1997.

Order a personalized Market Snapshot to give you specific information about the sales activity in your Loudoun County neighborhood! Just Click HERE! This report links to the MLS and reports live data in a personalized format. It takes only about 10 minutes for the report to be calculated and emailed to you once it's ordered.

August Market Update for Loudoun

Reports continue to show stabilization within Loudoun County. Since prices adjusted (down about 25% from last year as of the end of August), activity levels continue to be on the rise.

MRIS reports a 28.47% increase in the number of closed sales in August 2008 compared to August 2007. This has been a trend for several months (up 8% in July, 19% in June, 12% in May, when compared to the same months in 2007), and is a very positive indicator that Loudoun, at least for now, seems to have reached the "bottom" of the market and is improving. I have even seen recent transactions where an investor purchased a home from a bank a few months ago, and has flipped the property, quickly, making no improvements and raking in a handsome profit. Although I do NOT recommend this investment strategy in a volital market, it is very nice to see that we may be experiencing not just stabilization, but perhaps some recovery in limited areas.

The 37 cash purchases in August (about 7% of the closed transactions) indicate investors support the theory that Loudoun's market in strengthening.

And, with 37% of the transactions being financed with FHA and VA loans, we know that first time home buyers are seeing opportunities in the market of newly affordable homes available, coupled with historically low interest rates. I anticipate September will show further increase in FHA loans as those using the seller funded down payment assistance programs will rush to complete their transactions before the program disappears (CLICK HERE TO LEARN ABOUT THIS CHANGE). We may see a "lull" in October as first time home buyers, real estate agents and loan officers scramble to learn about other low/no money down options to keep a steady flow of these buyers entering our market.

Currently, Loudoun has a little less than a 5 month inventory of homes on the market. The National Association of REALTORS suggests that a 6 month inventory is indicative of a "balanced" market, with higher inventory levels being a "buyers market" and lower inventory levels indicating a "sellers market". I am not certain I would call this a "seller's market" considering how far prices have dropped compared to previous years. However, sellers who are pricing RIGHT when their listings enter the market place ARE seeing multiple offers and quick sales. The MRIS report shows that 30% of the homes that went under contract did so in the first 30 days on the market, and another 18% got a contract within the first 60 days. What happens to sellers "testing" the market with unrealistic pricing expectations? Those would be the listings that remain on the market well beyond the "average" of 103 days of marketing time.

So, what's next? With the Fed taking control of Freddie and Fannie, Lehman Bros filing for bankrupsty, Merill Lynch being purchased by Bank of America, and the seller funded DPA's disappearing, what's to come over the next few months? Stay tuned as I work to provide you with insights on this ever changing market.

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MRIS publishes new statistics monthly, around the second week of the month. The public can access these reports from MRIS.com. They are published by region, county, city, and even zip code. A qualified agent can help you understand the information contained in these reports.For an even closer look at market conditions, order a personalized Market Snapshot by clicking HERE. Type in the information about your home, and your email address... a personalized report will be sent to you in a few minutes, detailing information about the geographically closest homes which are for sale and have recently sold.