Monday, August 11, 2008
No. Va. Shows Continuing Signs of Stabilization
In the last few months, I have mentioned positive trends in the real estate market within Northern Virginia, and I am pleased to say that the statistics continue to back up my statements. The region is showing signs of stabilization.
July's statistics (published by MRIS) show that Northern Virginia (defined as Fairfax & Arlington Counties including the cities of Fairfax, Falls Church and Alexandria) indicate the following:
* While prices are down about 13% compared to last year, sales prices took their biggest hit in January of 2008, and since then seem relatively stable with only minimal changes in average sales prices each month throughout 2008.
* There is currently a 4.86 month supply of inventory (down slightly from last month). The National Association of REALTORS says that a 6 month inventory is generally indicative of a "balanced" market. This is down from 6.19 months of inventory in July of last year.
* The number of units sold is relatively the same as this time last year, with a less than 1% difference.
* We can tell first time home buyers are entering the market, as FHA and VA loans financed about 24% of the closed sales in July.
* Investors have re-entered the market, demonstrated by the increase in cash transactions, loan assumptions and other creative financing options - these transactions made up about 11% of the transactions last month.
Please remember that this shows statistics for the No. Virginia area as a whole. Within this area, there are many submarkets. Your agent can assist you with further determining the situation in the submarkets that will most affect you.
Look for more summary reports on Fairfax & Loudoun Counties in the next few days.
OTHER TOOLS AND REPORTS:
A great tool for sellers to understand the market that is geographically closest to them is the Market Snapshot - order your automated report from the home page of my web site (http://www.vickychrisner.com/) . You will need to put in a real email address and real physical address, as the tool uses your physical address to determine the area for the report, and then emails the report to you.
The MRIS reports are posted by region, county and zip code each month. These reports are available to the public at http://www.mris.com/
Monday, August 4, 2008
A Market Shift In Loudoun
Could the "Whisperers" be right (click to see original post)?
June's month end reports for Loudoun suggest that may be the case.
Although sales prices are down about 17% from last year; market activity is UP, with a 19% increase in the number of homes going under contract compared to the previous year.
NAR says a "balanced market" carries about a 6 month supply of homes (meaning that at the current absorption rate, it would take 6 months for all the homes to go under contract). In Loudoun, as of the end of June, we're at just over a 5 month supply.
It's also important to look for indicators of affordability and renewed confidence in the real estate market, like signs of investors and first time home buyers entering the market. One of the best indicators for this is the type of financing being used.
- In June 2007, 94% of purchases where financed with conventional loans; with less than 1 percent being financed with a government backed loan like FHA or VA (typically used by first time home buyers); and just over 5% of the purchases were via loan assumptions or cash transactions (often indicators of investor purchases).
- Comparatively, in June 2008, only 55% of the purchases were using conventional loans; over 30% were FHA or VA; and nearly 13% were purchased with cash or by loan assumption.
Before you decide to buy or sell, contact an expert who can give you even more specifics about your area. But in general, in Loudoun, there are definately measureable signs of stabilization!
A few words of caution....
A stabilizing market does not mean that prices will start to rapidly appreciate immediately. So, sellers, please don't convince yourself that by next year you'll be able to get more for your home than you can this year. To keep abreast of the sales going on closest to you, visit this web site to get a free market snapshot (it works throughout No. Va, regardless of your zip code) -www.20175homesales.com - you will need to enter your actual address and email so that the report can be properly generated and emailed to you automatically, and it will be updated monthly and resent until you unsubscribe or increase the frequency of updates you're receiving. There is no charge or obligation, and this is all handled automatically through the software program. The information is pulled straight from the MLS.
And, buyers, don't put off that purchase since you think prices won't be increasing immediately - the lending world is changing daily and investors and first time home buyers are finding it harder and harder to be deemed worthy of a loan. Costs of some loans are going up and if you are paying more to borrow the money, then your "buying power" is reduced.
Any first time home buyers hoping to get in "no money down" should be moving quickly. Recent legislation will be taking away the most popular national no money down program - a seller funded down payment assistance program combined with FHA. Those programs disappear if you have not closed on your new home by October 1st of this year - so move quickly! (You can read more about this at http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2008/07/take-action-now-save-down-payment.html
Call or email anytime with questions or comments - vchrisner@kw.com 703-669-3142
Visit my web site at www.VickyChrisner.com for many more resources.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
REOs - Everything you need to know
UPDATE: Thanks for coming to my blog. Regardless of how you got here, this series was written in 2008. The market is ever evolving and hopefully you will find this information outdated. A better source of CURRENT information about buying an REO can be found by clicking HERE: REOs in 2010.
Buying "foreclosures" remains a major consumer focus; so I wanted to outline the series I finished up last month on the process. I broke it into several parts, all of which you'll want to read if you're thinking about jumping into the game!
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Buying "foreclosures" remains a major consumer focus; so I wanted to outline the series I finished up last month on the process. I broke it into several parts, all of which you'll want to read if you're thinking about jumping into the game!
As all of these posts are very serious, informative and specific... first, I want to give you a humorous look at what you might encounter.
Yes, when you are planning to buy, it CAN feel like this. The good news is you are taking good steps which will enable you to get through this: (1) Educate yourself (2) Get (and keep) a sense of humor (3) Hire an agent that knows what they are doing!
The TRUTH about REOs
Ready to Buy
The Great House Hunt
Making an Offer - PRICE
Making an Offer - FINANCING
Making an Offer - DEADLINES
Contract to Close - TITLE COMPANY
Contract to Close - Everything "else"
I am successfully helping investors, first time home buyers, and those "moving up" find great deals in the market every day. So many of the homes are post foreclosure REOs, and they can be great deals - after all, they SHOULD be if you have to know all of this, AND MORE to buy one! I can help you navigate the murky waters of today's market - please give me a call!
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Update note 5/29/09: Thank you to all that continue to contact me expressing appreciation for this blog. For those of you that would like a copy of the addendum I reference in these posts; please see http://therealestatewhisperer.blogspot.com/2009/05/reos-addendum.html.
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Vicky Chrisner Keller Williams Realty
703-669-3142 vchrisner@kw.com
Start your home search today at: http://www.vickychrisner.com/
Friday, August 1, 2008
Thinking of Selling? Some Facts about Northern Virginia
So, you're thinking of selling... wondering what the market's like?
Here are some interesting statistics, published through the end of last quarter (June 2008)... and a bit of information about how to interpret it:
In Northern Virginia
(No. Virginia is defined by MRIS as Fairfax Co. & City, Alexandria, Falls Church and Arlington)
* Prices of SOLD home are down about 15% from last year.
* The number of homes sold are down about 5% from last year.
* The average number of days a home stays on the market is 83.
* The SOLD prices of homes is, on average, 93% of asking price.
Who the buyers are: Looking at how people are financing homes gives us some clue about who the buyers are:
* 65% finance with conventional loans. This requires a 20% down payment, which usually signifies someone OTHER than a first time home buyer.
* 23% finance with FHA or VA loans - these are typically first time home buyers.
* 10% pay cash, assume a loan or use seller financing - these are typically investors.
Compared to last year, there is a huge difference. Last year more than 90% of the purchases were paid for with conventional loans, only about 1% were FHA or VA loans, and less than 5% were paid for with cash, loan assumptions or seller financing.
What does this mean? Well, it says that the No. Va. region is showing some signs of stabilization. When you see an increase in first time home buyers and investors entering the market, that is a good sign.
Further supporting this, is the supply ratio - last year this time, we had a 5.7 month supply of available homes; this year, it's down to 4.96 months. That might not sound like a big adjustment, but it is measurable. There are signs of stabilization in the market place.
Having said all of this, what's going on in Northern Virginia does not tell you what your area is like. Some areas are showing even stronger levels of stabilization, where other neighborhoods have indicators that seem to suggest further price decline in the coming months.
If you're trying to decide what your next step should be, call me. I will be happy to run reports and help you analyze the data that is most critical to you.
But, for you "do-it-yourself-ers" out there, feel free to use these resources to help you learn more:
* If you follow this link, you are welcome to run the same reports for anywhere that MRIS services. You can run them by area or by zip code. There are a lot of numbers on these reports, but I have shared with you some of the greatest industry markers available to us. New statistics are published around the 10th of each month for the preceding calendar month: http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/monthly_reti.cfm
* On the home page of my web site is a Market Snapshot tool, it links to the MLS with live data and will tell you the prices and other information of homes that have sold or that are on the market that are closest to your home. Please note, the report will be automatically generated and emailed to you - so you must include a REAL email, or you will not receive the report. You must also include the specific address of the property so that tool can function - since it is looking for the closest addresses to yours, if it does not know where you live, it will not be able to determine who is closest to you. Once you've entered the information, you'll get monthly updates automatically. You can also choose to get information more often.
If you have any difficulties or would like assistance obtaining or analyzing this information, my team and I are here to serve you. Don't hesitate to ask!
No Money Down Options - Gone?
Buyers - do you know that "no money down" programs are disappearing?
The most popular of these programs used with FHA is the Seller Funded Down Payment Assistance program. Recent legislation says the program will begin being phased out on October 1st. There is little guidance, and we're not sure when you'll have to close, but you MUST have a ratified offer and FULLY APPROVED LOAN by 10/1 in order to take advantage of this program.
Thinking of buying in Northern Virginia? Follow this link and click on the Home Search Option (www.VickyChrisner.com). Thinking of buying in another area - contact me for a referral to a great agent in your area, you can email me at vchrisner@kw.com. If I can help you learn more about taking advantage of this program while it lasts, please call me 703-669-3142.
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